Player Stats Deep Dive: The Back Row to beat the Springboks.

From the team selected to the lack of preparation  before the test series the lions tour to South Africa will get exponentially more coverage over the coming months.

The squad selected to face the Springboks this year, will be Warren Gatland’s first major headache with the back row key to the squads success. Gatland will need to balance hard graft with a bit of x factor, and players capable of linking the forwards to the backs.

The springboks have one of  the best backrow units in the world, with incredible depth in the squad.It is the cream of the crop that will probably concern the lions the most, with Duane Vermulen, Pieter Steph du Toit, and inspirational captain Siya Kolisi likely to be the South African starting 3. 

Duane Vermulen: Carry Machine

Duane Vermulen presents some very interesting abilities when considering him as a player. He offers a genuine  carrying threat,responsible for a quarter of the carries of the South African back row options during  the entirety of the Rugby World Cup. This becomes even clearer when you consider his carries per pass ratio, with the Springbok 8 only passing once every six carries.

But how does Duane Vermulen compare to other  number eights in tier one  nations. To start Vermulen conserves energy with less involvements than the average player. This means he’s primed to unleash his devastating carries in small bursts when most effect. Indeed his impact  on a game is best summarised by his carry effectiveness averaging 3.6 meters per carry. Even more impressive is when you consider the areas that Vermulen makes his carries. Often tasked with grabbing hard yards, Vermulen can be found carrying between the two 15m lines, carving through the path of most resistance.

The Springbok Flankers: The specific tools for the job.

We can better see the role of the flanker within the South African game by looking at impact ratings. Impact rating offers a way to examine the role of a player or position within the side by discounting the glamour and focussing on the hard grunt work such as tackling and carrying.

Most teams use their flankers as the work horses of the side but the Boks mix this  with hard working centres.  A clear indicator of this is De Allande’s appearance as their player with the highest single impact in the ratings.  South Africa’s centres and flankers both record on average an impact score of 0.1977 indicating they undertake  similar roles. This is due to the Springboks favouring the flankers as major cleaners and supporting players, stats sadly not widely available. 

This combination of work rate allowed the flankers to adopt a more game by game role, especially Kolisi. Looking at their attack and defence rating in the knockout matches it’s easy to see how the roles changed depending on the opponent.

Against Wales, Kolisi offered a greater  attacking threat but against Japan, his impact was defensive as the South Africans looked to absorb the Japanese attack. Kolisi certainly played a more specific role, when it came to being the game breaker. The South African captain provided 19 game breaking events (a metric covering areas including turnovers, clean breaks, and defenders beaten) over the Rugby World Cup, the 6th highest of all flankers.

On the other hand Pieter Steph Du Toit, helda much more structure aligned  role, with slight variations based on the opponent. This was primarily on defence, explaining a higher tackle count than Kolisi. In Pieter Steph du Toit the Boks found a consistent hard worker and tenacious blindside flanker.

The Lions Back Row To Beat The Boks

 how should the lions approach breaking down the South Africans and countering this outstanding back row unit. I believe they will need to focus on 3 key aspects without which a tour victory seems unlikely. 

• First, the Lions will need to carry effectively. 
• Second, the Lions should be prepared to have the ball for a long time:
  • with the Springboks likely to rely on a kick heavy strategy, once the lions are able to get possession in enemy territory they need to keep it there. 
• Finally they will need an abrasive and willing defence. The South African demolition of England, and to an even greater extent Japan, was their ability to break the gain line time and time again. It’s imperative the Lions are able to stop South Africa’s momentum at source.

So what options can the lions field and how do they fit with an overall balance and strategy?

Looking at current international squads and starting with the openside flanker, it’s clear there is a deep pool of talent to pick from, who could fill similar roles, should Warren Gatland cast his eye in their direction. For example Jamie Ritchie and Justin Tipuric, while the combative Scot and the silky skills of Tipuric may seem incredibly different both offer a hybrid option. With Tipuric recording 13.43 involvements on both attack and defence, while Ritchie had 12.63 and 12.88 involvements on attack and defense respectively. 

This hybrid option could provide Gatland with the ability to use a game breaking flanker. Able to defended stoically whilst  offering a threat on attack. 

Data wise Justin Tipuric looks the better pick of the two. An outstanding player the Welshman out scored the Scot intackle volume, tackle success and, carry effectiveness. Tipuric also offers a game breaking option outscoring the Scot 36 to 30, though on average Ritchie outscored Tipuric to 3.75 and 3.6.

Gatland may well consider another Scottish flanker who offers an ability to carry well. Hamish Watson recorded a carry effectiveness of 3.9 and a meters per carry of 3.5. He also offers a strong defensive option, Watson had the 2nd highest defensive rating of all flankers to play 140 minutes since Japan beat Russia in the World Cup (outscored by only Argentine workhorse Marcos Kremer). 

So should Gatland look for someone willing to carry hard and straight and blunt Springbok defences then Watson could be his man. Perhaps Watsons inability to offer a threat more often may undermine his chances,an average attack involvement of 10 per game was 3 lower than Tipuric and team mate Ritchie.

One player highly likely to pack down at flanker, though he may be just as comfortable at 8 is Tom Curry. One half of Jones ‘Kamikaze twins’, Curry has become a key stone for the England team. His versatility could see him become a useful option should there be a yellow card.  His appetite for work has not only seen him  average the 4th most runs of players within the home nations but he has also become an effective carrier recording 2.6, he has  a higher meters per carry than Talupe Faletau and similar effectiveness to Billy Vunipola when on the ball. 

But  it is in defence Curry could play an integral role. 

Alongside strong back row, Curry may well offer the perfect hybrid solution for the Lions. However as shown on the above graph, he sits incredibly close to Stander (and above Tipuric), showing that his involvement in the tests may not be the forgone conclusion many assume. There is no doubt he will go, but others in the home nations offer turnover threat, as well as slight improvements both offensively and defensively meaning he’ll be battling to take that spot.

The number 8 debate, maybe the most contested in the squad  with 3 main options for the Number 8 shirt; Taluape Faletau, Billy Vunipola and CJ Stander. 

Each player has their own specific strengths and advantages and we may well see the 8 shirt handed to a player with a specific role in mind.

 Ireland’s CJ Stander has been a strong candidate throughout 2020.  An incredibly important player for the Irish since Heaslips retirement, Stander offers an incredible volume of carrying for the lions. While he does sometimes lack effectiveness, only managing an average of 1.7 meters per carry,  his high workload could be key to allowing the remaining backrowers to be held back for game breaking moments. This work rate makes him an incredibly appealing option for the Lions.

As shown in the graph, Stander at the World Cup was the most involved player on both attack and defence. 

He had the highest defensive rating at the World Cup, while his attack rating was sitting on the average for the home nation 8s. What may be a concern for the Lions is the shift of role under Andy Farrell whereStander is required to fill a more prominent attacking role impacting his defensive rating, as the Irish 8 slipped behind Taluape Faletau, and number 8 novice Tom Curry. He did however continue to outscore Billy Vunipola’s defensive rating.

Whilst Billy Vunipola did have a low defensive rating this is largely due to the England eight being preoccupied with his role in  attack. providing much of England’s go forward.

He was an incredibly effective and constant attacker for England in Japan, with an average of 17 involvements on attack while maintaining an attack rating of 7 and it’s this quality that could provide the Lions with the strong ball carrying number 8 they may need. Vunipola averaged 2.4 meters per carry, the highest of the 3 players being considered. This is even more impressive given Billy Vunipola’s more central role. 

 The final option for the Number 8 shirt is Taluape Faletau. The Welshman offered a different option to the  previous contenders. 

While Stander and Vunipola tend to be used centrally, Faletau is primarily a wide option for Wales, he probably also offers a more skillful option to confrontational abilities of Stander and Vunipola. This does limit the amount of touches Faletau makes, however he is an integral part of the welsh back row. His involvement will depend largely on the game plan adopted by the Lions. If the use of the second row to carry is prominent then Faletau offers a wide carrying option. But should the Lions struggle, and Faletau get dragged in from the touchlines, the other options available may provide better alternatives. 

The final position is the lions blindside flanker. The problem as with Pieter Steph du Toit, is that what makes some blindsides great is the unseen work they undertake but a good Number 6 is perhaps the key to the back row conundrum. 

Peter O’Manhoy is likely to be a strong choice at blindside. A strong option in the lineout, he also balances the back row allowing other players to undertake the highlight reel grabbing plays. 

The Irishman  is strong over the ball securing 6 turnovers during the world cup and Six nations. This ability to pilfer the ball could play an important role in breaking down the resolute Springbok defence. 

He has also adapted to  become a strong distributor for the Irish recently, averaging just 1.38 carries for every pass. Should the Lions choose to play wider he could prove an important player. He also offers the ability to be a soak carrier, responsible for 10% of Ireland’s carries of backrowers over 100 minutes. 

Finally Aaron Wainwright having burst onto the scene in 2019, offers a delicious option for the tour. An incredibly strong attacker, with a rating of 9.11, shows that while he  fulfills the more traditional aspects of the role  he is more than capable when given the ball. 

This strong attacking ability could see him given more ball on the lions tour, especially if he can get himself slightly wider in attack where his most profitable carrying can come to the fore. An effectiveness of 4, even if just from 2 carries on average, shows that when Wainwright is given the ball sparks could fly.

While there are surely more options that can and should be considered to fill the blindside void, the balance of the back row will be crucial for the Lions chances of success. 

While kicking will certainly play a role in stopping this, the Lions are no doubt going to need strong carriers as they find they are likely going to have to grind their way up the pitch against one of the strongest defences in world rugby.

For this reason I think that the lion’s back row is going to need to be dominant, the focus of my choice of 6, 7 and 8.

6 – Tom Curry – While Curry was never a field leader in any of the stats. He could provide the consistency needed at 6 for the lions. The Sale Sharks flanker is certainly more comfortable here than at the back of the scrum, and his new found experience at 8 could offer the lions increased carrying power.

7 – Justin Tipuric – The welshman has well documented silky skills, and the ability to play an attacking game is crucial for the Lions who will need to take their opportunities when they arise. Couple with this his ability to win turnovers and create game breaking moments and he becomes an incredibly important piece.

8 –  Billy Vunipola – The Englishman could provide just what the Lions are looking for in terms of a carrying number 8. The ability to generate gainline contacts, and drag the attack forward will be crucial. The lack of defence involvement could be a worry, but this should be covered through Curry’s appointment at blindside.

So there we have it. I have stuck my head above the parapet and would love to hear your thoughts, where I went wrong and who you would select. Overall, I am looking forward to the Lions tour, it is going to be special.