ITALY are often considered out of place at the top table of world rugby. With their inclusion in the six nations inducing a lot of flak and with current struggles increasing calls for relegation. However, not many people have examined why Italy struggle, whether they can become a threat at the World Cup and if there are any rays of sunshine piercing the doom and gloom of the Six Nations table.
Itallian Attack
The best way to understand why Italy struggle is to examine the 2 main facets of a teams performance. Are they scoring and how much are they conceding? In attack Italy can be seen to struggle scoring only 10 tries in the most recent Six Nations an average of 2 per game. This is a standard figure, having watched five additional games we can see the same pattern. Italy scored a maximum of 3 tries, in a game v Japan with an average of just 1.6 across the other 5 games.
But why is this so low. Against teams like Wales, Ireland and New Zealand it is understandable, in the Six Nations Wales conceded only 1.5 tries a game. The worrying signs are that Italy only scored slightly above this average v Japan with 2.5 across their games.
One reason for stuttering and struggling attack could be a limited variety. As shown in the chart below, when playing in the five games I analysed, they played in the close channels (Off 9 and Pick N Go) 67% of the time.
This lack of variety can be expected as not every pass should be going wide, with an increase in ground loss expected. The main worry here is that it differs so much from where Italy should be. As a tier 1.5 team competing in a T1 competition they need to play a wider variety. When examining these games v T1 we see that the Opposition played a total of 57% in Close Quarters. This translates to an increase of 15 phases of wide attack.This dramatic change just emphasizes why Italy struggle, they suffer from the shackles of lower skill unable to break free and play expansively perhaps pointing to a lack of confidence in their wide players.
While I can spout stats at you showing that they struggle to go wide, why do they struggle and are unable to score even when they do attack out wide leading to a low completion of Line Breaks and Red Zone opportunities.
The main reason for this, in my opinion, is a lack of penetration with a team that lacks a real cutting edge. This is best shown by the 2018 Six Nations Table where Italy scored 2 more tries, than they did in 2019. However while this slight increase is key leading to a general increase of 13 points, what is more interesting is they out scored both France and Scotland, while being within 3 tries of England and Wales. Where as in 2019 they only equalled Wales but scored 35 less points.
This lack of penetration often manifests itself with a need for the opposition to be put on the back foot and make an error, not something they will find easy against South Africa and New Zealand.
In the image above we can see how Italy have managed to force Japan to over fold leading to a simple walk in. This kind of brain lapse is where Italy tend to score the majority of their tries. For example, when they played Ireland in Chicago they scored a singular try coming from an interception.
This reliance on mistakes will tend to make Italy an easy side to beat. However one of Italy’s strengths is their ability to create an opportunity. As shown in the picture below, after just a couple of phases Italy have created a scoring opportunity, which they convert.
However, it also points to another problem with the Itallian attack. The majority of the tries come before 10 phases. The reason for this being a tendency to become lateral. In the images below, in a game v Ireland the problem is shown clearly.
In this wide angle shot we can see there are 5 options (there is a runner out the back), however due to the flat nature it means the Fly Half is unable to use any. However this Itallian line creates another problem, when the runner out the back receives the ball his options are cut off as he gets caught in this flat line of half attempted support.
However, hopefully, this sort of situation can be avoided at the RWC. With increased time together the squad should be able to settle and get used to running these structures rather than having to return to a close quarter game.
Another improvement Italy will certainly have is the introduction of Matteo Minozzi. Minozzi’s electric feet lit up 2018 but his absence in 2019 blunted the Itallian attack. It left Jayden Hayward at Full Back who brought a more astute mind but lacked the flair.
The lack of penetration led to less tries, and less points in general.
Fortunately for Italy and the Rugby World Cup, Minozzi should be at the World Cup having recovered from the injury, offering a sabre to complement the Itallian blunt force attack.
Itallian Defence
Defence is an area in which improvement is needed for Italy to really succeed and bridge to a Tier 1 team. However it is hard to see any radical improvements happening between the six nations and the world cup. Obviously the longer time spent together will help to prevent simple communication errors but overall, there are some gaping holes which plague the Itallian system.
The main and most problematic weakness for Italy is there defence following set piece. The strange set up they partake in leaves sometimes half a pitch covered by a handful of forwards.
As shown in the image above Italy have 3 players covering half the pitch. The lack of organisation can lead to holes being left for a quick attack.
This could well be a problem against South Africa. Look at how South Africa are able to exploit this vs New Zealand. This under resourcing of the blind side could well cause them problems.
However, to avoid dwelling on the strengths of the opposition there is another chink in the Itallian armour.
In the frame below, you can see an example taken from their game v England, without the infamous non committal ruck tactics.
In the example, you can see that Italy have been thoroughly stretched off the quick ball. Something that shouldn’t be a problem from an international defence. The lack of cover off Second phase leads to an easy finish for Watson.
This sort of defensive lapse could well limit the Itallians in Japan. Against the strike power of the Springboks and transition explosiveness of New Zealand it is easy to see Italy being significantly squashed.
Conclusion
Overall, given the defensive problems outlined above alongside a lack of penetration and an easily repelled blunt attack, it is hard to see Italy being a threat to New Zealand or South Africa in this edition. However, Conor O’shea is really beginning to mould a threatening team, with exciting prospects. While they are unlucky with a nigh impossible group, one can assume one thing.
They will bring an unexpected edge.
The Analysis Guy 