Analysis: How Italy Shocked Wales

Italy provided the shock of the Six Nations beating the Welsh in Cardiff. The Azzurri won their first game in seven years off the back of a new-found pragmatic attack, and their suffocating defence.

The Pragmatic Approach

Italy adopted a more pragmatic approach in the 2022 Six Nations. They were previously a side happy to fling it about anywhere on the field. Everyone loves running rugby but the best sides kick to make sure they play beautiful rugby in the right areas of the field.

A breakdown of kicking across the Six Nations in 2021 and 2022. Italy jumped from 80 kicks in 2021, to 159 kicks in 2022

As shown in the graph above, Italy jumped from just 80 kicks in the 2021 Six Nations to 159 kicks in 2022. This more pragmatic approach allowed them to move up the field, escaping the pressure in their own half and applying it to Wales.

1:31 – Italy kick from a centre field scrum. It places huge pressure on the Welsh backfield.

Take this kick from the second minute by Paolo Garbisi. The centre field scrum has caused problems for the Welsh backfield leaving McNicholl trying to cover half the pitch. This leaves plenty of space for Garbisi to aim for, and with the new 50:22 rules in play, he angles his kick towards the touchline.

Garbisi keeps the kick low, reducing the time McNicholl has to cover the ground. The bounce is lucky, but it allows Ioane to hunt the Welsh Full Back. McNicholl does well to prevent the to reel it in. But Wales are pinned deep in their 22 and have to escape. The passage ends with a Welsh kick to touch, an early shot fired by the Italians.

However it is the kick that followed the Lineout attack that impresses me the most. Italy start with a pretty standard, off the top midfield crash from the lineout. They then play around the corner reaching the 15m line. Nothing spectacular, and they have lost all their momentum by the second tackle.

2:33 – Calum Braley shows great game control with a delicate chip over the Welsh defence

This is where teams can lack nous, and try to overplay. Italy plays one more phase and get caught behind the gain line by the Welsh defence. This well and truly kills the Italian attack. Braley takes one glance and chips a lovely box kick into the Welsh backfield again finding grass. 

While the outcome may not be as dramatic as the first, it is the kick that symbolises a new Italian approach. A side with a more pragmatic, and efficient approach.

Shows a team’s attack completion versus their progression in the Six Nations since 2021. Completion = Attack which doesn’t end with a turnover or error. Progression = An attacks ability to move up the field

The effects of this pragmatism are shown in the data. The only 3 games in which Italy secured above average Attack Completion and Progression were in 2022. Attack completion is a measure of how many attacks a team doesn’t give up a turnover, while progression shows their ability to move up the pitch.

The progression part is key here. Italy boosted by their newfound kicking game began to really move up the field and place other teams under territorial pressure.

Italy combined this desire to move the pitch with a sensible approach to penalty decisions. Unlike the Welsh who chased tries, Italy instead kept the scoreboard ticking over. Of the five penalties they kicked over, four of them were outside the 22. 

This low-risk approach is admirable, you can only imagine how tempting it must have been to chase tries as they started to believe.

55:18 – Capuozzo and Monty Ioane combine for a linebreak in build up to final penalty.

Don’t take this as an attack on teams that prioritise flair, and expansive attacking. The Italians certainly treated us to some fantastic off the cuff attack. Such as the effort above which led to their final 3 point score, the only one in the Welsh 22.

Mixing their pragmatism with this incredible flair and attacking the talent allowed them to tear Wales apart in key moments. While the penalties keep them in touch long enough for these key moments to be more than footnotes.

Attacking the Edge

However, they were not just reliant on magic moments. The Azzurri had success deploying shape on shape attacks when reaching the wide channel. This game however wasn’t a flash in the pan for their edge attack, with the same shapes on show against Scotland.

Italy v Scotland – Italy use an edge shape with a hard runner and out the back option to attack the Scottish edge defence

The Italians use a double-layered attack to attack the Scottish in this second-minute attack. I call the move ‘The Storm’, as it includes players that bring the thunder, carrying hard, and those that offer the lightning, to get outside the defence. 

The Italians use this to attack the channel between Scotland’s 13 and 14l. By having a thunder option the Italians are hoping they can cause one player to bite in and get either a two against one or a physical mismatch to attack back from the touchline on the front foot.

Italy v Scotland – Italy too deep so edge shape is well shut down by Darcy Graham and Chris Harris who remain patient.

The problem here for the Italians is, they begin their shape too deep giving Harris and Graham plenty of time to read the shape and make their decisions. The Scotland pair hold their feet before Italy reveal their plan. This nullifies Italy’s attack and Luke Pearce calls it back for an earlier Scottish offence.

But what relevance does this have to the game in Cardiff? Italy were able to target the Welsh defence effectively, using this shape to make half breaks stress the Welsh defence in trouble.

11 – Italy use a late transforming pod to surprise the Welsh attack. They force a penalty for an off the ball tackle and open their account.

In the GIF above we see a small variation on the Storm shape. Italy start with a 3 man pod before transforming late. The Welsh defence is actually well prepared for the 3 man crash, but the late transformation cause significant problems.

Watch the actions of the two Welsh defenders outside the players who make the tackle. They both accelerate hard as the Italy shape transforms worried about getting outflanked. This leaves Brex running hard at two front-rowers with Garbisi on his outside.

Brex breaks through the first contact. The late transformation is a powerful tool and puts Italy on the front foot. Wales tackle Garbisi off the ball. This is a sign of the stress Italy placed on the Welsh defence and leads to the first points of the game.

Suffocating Italian Defence

However it wasn’t just superb attack that led to Italian victory. Italy also bringing a suffocating defence. The Italian defence definitely benefitted from Welsh mistakes, but the system itself also forced turnovers.

The main component of this suffocating defence was their two-man tackle system. Across the game, Italy made 175 tackles forcing 109 Welsh rucks. The Azzurri committed an average of 1.6 players per ruck. The highest of any side on Super Saturday

26:30/36:50 – Italy used double tackles to great effect shutting down the Welsh attack and winning turnovers.

As these two GIFs show, the Italians had a great effect with their double tackle system. Forcing the Welsh attack backwards and creating slow ball or turnovers.

However, their defensive strategy wasn’t just focused on killing the ball with two man hits. They also used single man chop tackles, particularly close to their line. The only player they didn’t chop near their own line was Alun Wyn-Jones. A sign of how Italy varied their defence based on the Welsh threats. This chop tackle strategy did appear outside the 22, especially when Danillo Fischetti was on the prowl.

14:17 – A low chop tackle by Ignacio Brex allows Danillo Fischetti to lock down on the ball and force a turnover.

The prop was a threat at the breakdown throughout the tournament recording 5 steals. He was particularly dangerous against Wales. The GIF above is a great example. Brex makes a wonderful low chop tackle on Seb Davies. Brex locking the legs and controlling the fall of the Welsh 6. 

Brex delivers him right to Fischetti’s feet. The Italian loose-head immediately locks onto the ball, and the Welsh can’t move him. The resulting penalty moved the Azzurri 6 points in front. A great start on their way to their famous victory.

There are many tales from this particular game. The final try by Carpuzzo will live long in the memory. It was a victory built on a pragmatic approach to the game, mixed with a dose of Italian flair. Italy defended suffocated the Welsh attack. However, their development with the ball and their pragmatic approach stands out to me. Setting the platform for a famous victory.

FORZA AZZURRI

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