Tonga and the USA had been dealt a hard blow before the World Cup. With little chance of progression this World Cup represented an experience rather than a fully open opportunity. While the US had done well at home in a few games at home, they were struggling with form, and went into the game as underdogs. Meanwhile Tonga had performed well, restricting England and stopping them getting a bonus point until the closing minutes of their game and pushing France all the way.
The tongans are clearly a rugby power, not necessarily a top side but the performances they gave, show a significant depth of character, and skill. In all their games they had over 50 platforms from which to attack. 53 of their 161 platforms were in the opposition half, (stats taken from all games) apart from Argentina. This means they had 18 attacking platforms per game, yet in those 3 games scored only 47, an average of 15 points. This means they came away with less points than attacking platforms.
To make the step up therefore it is clear what Tonga must do. They have a great attacking machine, with a solid base of talent but to make a jump they need to start converting chances. Against the US, they couldn’t do this surrendering possession 85.2% of the time.
The key here is that when Fiji played Georgia, teams of a roughly comparable level in that this is where Tonga should be aiming. Fiji recorded 58.3% ball lost whilst Georgia surrendered ball 70.6% of the time.
Ths 15% gap between Tonga and Georgia is crucial. When using the lower of the two games platforms 37 – Georgia – it corresponds to 5.55 platforms which end with ball being lost. When this is then used calculate against Points per platform, taking Tongas v USA (0.6) this mean 3 points a game.
As a result, while not a big change it is clear they are leaving points on the park. It becomes even more staggering when using Fiji’s as a comparative measure. The difference 26.9%, giving a platforms ‘Lost’ of 13. Resulting in a projected points lost of 8. This points difference is clear. THey are about 8 points behind Fiji.
Obviously the maths is very concise and selective, given it covers just one game. But the difference in conversion rate is clear, Tonga sacrificed 8 points per game. A total that could have put them in reach of France and made a shock slightly more likely.
USA on the other hand, need to give themselves more of a chance. In their games against Tonga, England and France they kicked the ball surrendering ball with that kick 65 times (v Tonga 26/29) (v Fra 19/26) (v Eng 20/23). There is most certainly a link between success and kick rates, but the US were gifting the opposition a platform at times. England able to exploit pressure from poor kicking, using Vuinopola in the back field.
The vast amount with little chance of regaining the ball should and will change. The MLR will help develop kickers and game control, rather than a reliance on the free flowing 7s players. IT also will offer a pathway for US rugby players to the UK. This statistic will improve and the US will become a major threat once they can start to have a tight game plan, with additions rather than additions forming the game plan.
For both teams this world cup was going to be hard. They performed admirably and their game was a good one to watch. While Tonga exposed some rush defence for Siale Piataus birthday present and final game, the US were able to really attack well from transition. Both team showing they have an arsenal of weapons to damage modern teams
The Analysis Guy 