The rugby world cup needs a story and we have been spoilt for choice. The conditions have created wins that we don’t deserve leaving many prediction models in tatters. But this weekend the most important line of the story has been written. After the introductory game against Russia in which they were sluggish the Japanese created history against the Irish.
Ireland started well, completely in control at the beginning of the first half looking comfortable. The kicking game of Carty showed his confidence as he bedded into the game almost immediately. By the 11th minute Japan had kicked clear from their own 22 on 5 occasions from the 6 attacks beginning in their 22. However Japan did exert their own pressure with solid progressions attacking down the centre of the field.
They did show some weakness under the high ball and dealing with the Ireland kicking game. This is why it was so shocking to see the Irish fail to exploit this especially given their early success.
The build up to Gary Ringrose’s try really showed the irish attacks intentions. Starting as shown above in the 15m channel they hit pods in the centre of the field 3 times in a row. This drags Japan around until they reach the 15m on the right and then appear to want to shift in field.
With Ringrose hidden behind the pod Japan realign to defend a switch in the attack direction. This hiding of ringrose enable him to add real momentum to the irish attack. He attacks at the shoulder of the loose head prop and is as a result able to exploit a small gap with his stellar pace.
The break is then followed up with with close play. Ireland make it up to just short of the Japanese 5 metre line. They then continue the same pattern with close carries working their way from the 15m channel to underneath the posts with even the backs beginning to carry in the typical pod formation.
The close work from Ireland really drives them forward. It also brings the Japanese defence over to the openside having to readjust. This overall structure opens up space on the blindside, as the Japanese defence sits back Ireland really increase the width of the carries. This forces even more work from the Japanese. Yet while one pod of backs is used, Gary Ringrose is not used. He instead stays on the far wing. Sitting outside the final Japanese defender who leave the majority of the 15m channel free.
As a result Ringros is able to attack him from behind and jump over him. This therefore leads to an easy chance. Carty’s kick is also incredibly good, the confidence carrying over from his performance and the current control he is exerting.
Interestingly while Ireland scored from this, and set up other chances, namely Earls managing to go free from his own half. Yet the confident kicking really died off in the second half. A team of Ireland’s quality should have continued to use this tactic but they lack a significant game sense for some reason. Scoring two tries from kicks it is a wonder Ireland stopped using the kick to try an upset Japan.
However, Japan also dealt well with kicks that allowed them to attack. By the 39th minute Japan were yet to start an attack in the Irish 22, instead progress was the name of the game. They averaged 78.6% exit from 22, third overall against Tier One nations, with only Italy and Ireland against them. (The Irish average taken before the game, in the game sitting at 60%)
This turning of the screw, with phases from Japan right at the end of the game was a turning point. At minute 39, Yu Tamura kicks a penalty a just reward for their efforts, but it was what happened in the next phase that is interesting. Ireland kick to long from the kick off Allowing Japan to start at the half way line instead of in their own half. Then with the clock in the red Japan, rather than putting the ball immediately out instead attack. From the scrum they attack Earls wing, reaching the 15m line and making it to the 10m. From here Japan use pods to attack down the centre and bring in Irish defenders. Then on the third phase they spin it wide reaching the opposite 15m line. Then following two switch back pod drives they spin it wide again. Finally gaining true forward momentum.
Exposing the space outside the Irish defence, Japan are finally dominant relying on guile not strength to break the green wall. The use of Japanese hooker, Horie allows them to play more expansive. Compared to many of his positional colleagues, Horie is a more mobile hooker, one reliant on handling rather than a tight carrying game. As a result he stands often at the front of pods able to pass balls off and make the decision as a first play maker. This added dimension enables Japan to be play with more fluidity.
A carry, from Matushima, following some more toing and froing brings Japan up to the 22. Then following another carry Japan carry again. Horie having held his position from his carry against Henderson now is sat in the wide channels. And against, mainly ridiculous, conventional wisdom kicks in behind.
Noticing Earls is flat and that Japan has a numerical advantage Horie’s kick rolls in behind and the Japanese winger is inches away from gathering the kick only for it to evade his clutches and roll into touch. But the added 3 minutes of play showed not only the technical and tactical skill but may possibly have had the added effect of wearing out the Irish side in conditions incredibly different from weight nights in Dublin.
In the second half, Japan really began to turn the screw. By the 48th minute reaching 6 max progressions, despite only 50% progression overall. This general trend of knowing when to attack and when to control the game from deep really turned Japan into a threat.
By the 57th Minute Japan recorded their 1st attack starting in the Irish 22, after an accidental offside from ireland. As a result Japan start with a scrum and are able to bring out a move specifically designed for this situation. They start with a pod crashing straight in, down the 10/12 channel. This forces the Irish to split their defensive line with mainly forwards remaining on the large blinside. Tanaka runs to the blind. The nuance to this play comes Lemeki, who has sat behind the play ready expose an overaggressive guard defence.
He floats behind the line and then comes on an incredibly hard line and brings japan to within 5m of the Ireland line. The beauty being that while most moves would have moved most backs into specific positions to take advantage and exploit this, Japan are able to realign and attack with an almost 100% complete back line.
After a few carries to pin the forwards close to the ruck and prevent support filtering it’s way out Japan strike wide again in a deadly 1-2 to take the lead. The ball staying within the 5m to allow Fukuoka an easy chance to score. This single move emphasised the difference in the two teams. Ireland struggled to adapt to conditions, as mentioned in commentary looking out on their feet and untypically sluggish. Japan however struck with quick plays making the most of their limited chances, resulting statistically in a 27% chance of scoring when in the Irish half.
Ireland should be worried the general feeling around the side needs to change. The sluggish nature is probably a mental one as despite ample time to adjust they looked off colour. However, most importantly they needed to stick to their strengths. They kicked 42.9% of their possession, 2 kicks ended with an irish score.So their movement away from this in the second half is completely bemusing. The general drop from 61% against Scotland is shocking and just shows the effect that Japan had on them almost entirely dictating the game, controlling the second half. Japan however decided the game through their ability to take points. Their scoring proficienncy putting them above New Zealand and England in terms of platforms to points. This game may not have decided the pool but it has well and truly blown it open and given Japan every chance of a progression.
The Analysis Guy 